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| | | #REDIRECT [[Statistical forecast]] |
| #REDIRECT [[statistical forecast]] | |
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| == statistical forecast ==
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| <div class="definition"><div class="short_definition">A forecast based on a systematic [[statistical]] examination of data representing past observed behavior of the system to be forecast, including observations of useful predictors outside the system.</div><br/> <div class="paragraph">In short-term [[climate]] forecasting, CCA (canonical [[correlation]] analysis), as described by Barnston (1994), is a good example of a statistical forecast. Depending on method and scope, the limitations of statistical forecasts are related to shortness of record, danger of overfitting, assumptions of [[linearity]] (often), absence (often) of physical considerations, etc. Purely statistical forecasts in weather forecasting have become rare; however, a combination of dynamical [[model]] output and [[statistics]] is very common in weather forecasting. Some statistical methods are guided by physical principles to such an extent that they resemble dynamical models. An example of the latter is empirical [[wave propagation]] described by Qin and van den Dool (1996). <br/>''See'' [[perfect prognosis method]], [[MOS]].</div><br/> </div><div class="reference">Barnston, A. 1994. Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate. 7. 1513–1564. </div><br/> <div class="reference">Qin, J., and H. M. van den Dool 1996. Simple extensions of an NWP model. Mon. Wea. Rev.. 124. 277–287. </div><br/>
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